The Hornets are chock-full of young talent, but like many talented young teams (*cough Houston Rockets cough*), they’re starting to feel the pain of having too many developmental projects and not enough minutes to go around.
Expectations for Charlotte are low this year, and most of the roster can’t even rent a car. Nobody is expecting a deep playoff run. Instead, management, coaches, and fans want to see progress from their youngsters.
After LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, the organization needs to determine which players to invest in and which to cut loose. Let’s dive in.
JT Thor
The Hornets have tried a half-in, half-out approach with JT Thor, and it hasn’t worked. They need to commit right now to see if they have a steady contributor on their hands.
Assuming the Hornets retain PJ Washington (which may not be a safe assumption!), the Hornets’ frontcourt is surprisingly crowded. Gordon Hayward, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, and PJ Washington will all likely command major minutes at the three and the four, and Cody Martin will receive some run, too. On paper, there isn’t much room for Thor.
But Hayward is often in street clothes, Washington may not be back, and nobody knows what sort of shape Bridges will show up in after a year off from basketball (plus, he’s suspended to start the season). There is an opportunity here for Thor if he can seize his chance.
The idea of Thor is tantalizing: an octopus-armed defensive menace with some deep-ball chops and an off-the-dribble pull-up game. It hasn’t materialized yet, but Thor, despite entering his third year, still can’t legally order a craft IPA. It’s easy to look at his raw talent and mentally mold his clay into something resembling Mikal Bridges or OG Anunoby.
We know Coach Steve Clifford is a fan. He’s repeatedly praised Thor’s work ethic and defense, which are the two things Clifford values most in players. But now it’s on Clifford to make sure Thor gets an opportunity to shine.
With Bridges an unrestricted free agent after the year, Washington’s status up in the air, and Hayward always a health concern, the current frontcourt traffic jam seems likely to clear up as soon as next season. The Hornets need to know if Thor can be a productive rotation player by then.
Mark Williams
The late-season trade of Mason Plumlee finally opened up some breathing room for first-round pick Mark Williams, and the rookie wasted no time in sucking the oxygen out of opposing offenses’ lungs like a paint-patrolling chupacabra.
Williams was rated as an above-average center in block percentage, steal percentage, and rebounding rate (on both ends). His gargantuan reach allows him to swat layups or three-pointers with equal aplomb, and his rebounding metrics are enticing — the defensive glass went from a team weakness to strength when he started playing big minutes.
Although Charlotte’s garbled end-of-season rotation messed up teamwide numbers, it is worth noting that the Hornets allowed 5.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Williams was on the floor. Most of that decrease was thanks to opponents’ inability to hit jumpers with Williams on the floor, but his length and surprisingly quick feet were a big part of that.
On offense, Williams is a solid pick-and-roll rim-runner who should be even better with more time alongside LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. He’s flashed a smooth midrange stroke at times dating back to his college days, and I fervently hope that the Hornets give him the rope to explore a face-up game this season.
Last year, the Hornets did not set Williams up for success. He was stuck in a timeshare at the backup center spot behind the since-traded Mason Plumlee with Nick Richards and Kai Jones.
Now, he’ll enter 2023-2024 as the unquestioned starter. Growing pains are inevitable. But a clearly-defined role and healthier, better teammates should lead to a breakout season from Williams.
Nick Smith Jr.
Despite his rookie status, there’s no guarantee the Hornets find much room for the lanky guard in their rotation. But it would be a mistake to squeeze him out entirely.
Smith Jr. was a highly-touted high school recruit who suffered a series of injuries in college, limiting his chances to play high-level basketball. In high school, Smith was a scoring machine who could also pass, rebound, and defend — a well-rounded combo guard with the size to guard either backcourt position and enough playmaking to start or finish plays.
An uneven Summer League mixed highs (a 33-point explosion) with lows (general ineffectiveness getting to and finishing at the rim), but his profile, no matter how fuzzy, is promising. Smith is still raw, but he’s shown some passing ability, and his defensive effort in Summer League was promising. It’s easy to envision him running next to LaMelo, draining catch-and-shoot jumpers while providing a secondary playmaking presence.
But context matters. Terry Rozier is still the unquestioned starter next to Ball, and Cody Martin and James Bouknight (more on him shortly) will likely soak up most of the backup minutes at shooting guard. Smith likely isn’t quite ready to run point guard yet, so he’ll spend a lot of time in Greensboro with the Swarm.
But the Hornets need to move on from Bouknight, and Martin might make more sense at the three. If Smith shines in the G-League, he’ll be given a chance to make an impact with the varsity squad.
He’ll need to get stronger, which will help him defend and score in the paint. And the jumper will have to fall. But Rozier’s contract is only partially guaranteed in 2025-2026, and the Hornets would love to know what they have in Smith by then.
James Bouknight
Acknowledging that you’ve made a huge mistake is tough, particularly in an industry where it’s always more convenient (and potentially job-saving) to make excuses. But at this point, the Hornets need to face reality and acknowledge that James Bouknight is better off trying to resuscitate his career elsewhere.
The #11 pick in the 2021 draft, Bouknight was drafted ahead of many more productive players: Chris Duarte, Corey Kispert, Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III, Quentin Grimes, Bones Hyland, Herb Jones, and Ayo Dosunmo, to name a few. Bouknight was supposed to be an efficient combo guard who could thrive next to LaMelo Ball and carry the offense when he sat.
Instead, we’ve been treated to two years of him missing (or ignoring) wide-open teammates, clanking contested jumpers, and blowing defensive assignments.
Are there signs of life? Sure, a few. He’s a good rebounder for a guard, and he was an improved finisher at the rim in his second season. But those skills are complementary to his role, not core, especially considering the increasing frequency with which he settled for contested midrange jumpers.
Nothing we saw in Summer League makes me think he’s gotten better this offseason, either. At this point, Bouknight is mostly in the way of other, more promising young players. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Hornets play him a bunch of minutes early in the season in an attempt to recoup some value for him in an eventual trade. Still, barring a miraculous turnaround, I’d expect him out of the rotation after the first couple of months.
I never want to write someone off when they aren’t even 23 years old. But for Bouknight to succeed, he needs a change of scenery.
Kai Jones
Sigh.
I want Kai Jones to be good so badly. He’s a freaky athlete even by the standards of a league full of the world’s freakiest athletes, as we saw when he mashed a basketball on Victor Wembanyama’s head during Summer League.
But nothing Jones has done has quite worked out. The three-pointer never developed. The defensive playmaking instincts are undone by high foul rates. He’s a poor rebounder on both sides and although he tries, he can’t keep up with perimeter players.
Jones also has 19 assists… in his career. By comparison, he has accumulated 37 turnovers (thanks to last year’s ghastly 24% turnover rate). That’s not great!
The biggest issue: the power forward experiment is dead. He’s proven he can’t be anything other than a center, and the Hornets already have two better (and improving) young centers in Mark Williams and Nick Richards. Even if the Hornets wanted to keep him around, it’s hard to imagine him earning enough playing time to make an impact.
He had moments in Summer League, and you can’t teach his athleticism. Perhaps another team will be interested in picking Jones up if the Hornets finally cut bait. At this point, it would be best for both parties if Jones isn’t on the roster for long.