The Off Day: Bobcats Hopes(?) Rest On Jack

Stephen Jackson is sidelined with a hamstring injury.  He didn’t play against the Spurs, probably for the inverse of the reason Tim Duncan sat out of the same game.  The Spurs figured they could rest him and still win.  The Bobcats likely figured they’d lose either way so why not give Jack the night off?  It proved something else though.  The Bobcats got behind early, and big.  Then, in the fourth quarter, they came back.  Sure, they came back to lose by a more respectable 11, when you compare it to the 20 points they trailed by at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Jackson is the leading scorer on the Bobcats, by a good clip.  He’s at 18.9 ppg, next is DJ Augustin at 14.3.  He’s tied for 2nd in assists per game with Diaw at 3.7.  He leads the team in steals per game.  Those are the positives.  Playing, now, at the SF, he’s not much of a rebounder at 4.6 per game.  He leads the team in turnovers.  Hell, he’s 13th in the league in turnovers!

If you like those “advanced” statistics, Jackson is 9th on the current roster in win shares per 48 minutes, which puts him just above Matt Carroll and Dominic McGuire.  In straight up plus/minus, he’s dead last, by a lot -245 to Kwame’s -213.  If it’s any consequence to you +/- naysayers, Najera is the only player in the positive at 3.  If you like Adjusted Plus/Minus, Jackson is second to last out of qualified players on the Bobcats, above Kwame Brown but below Dante Cunningham.

Just what am I getting at?  My point is, Stephen Jackson is one of those players that if you put him out there and he does really well, like in the game at home against the Trailblazers, you are bound to see great things and likely a win.  When he’s not “on” he’s just as bad as he is good.  With the hamstring the way it is, would it really kill the Bobcats chances for the playoffs to sit Captain Jack?  Does “forcing it” with him out there tomorrow night against the Pacers, put the Bobcats at a disadvantage?

The Bobcats offense struggles mightily, most nights, but particularly when Stephen Jackson isn’t in the line-up.  Jack has missed 6 games this season.  One from suspension, one from fluid on his knee and 4 with these hamstring issues.  In those games, without Jackson in the lineup, the Bobcats average 86.5 points.  With him in the line-up, the 63 games he’s played, the Bobcats average 93.6.  There is no denying that.  League average for points per game is 99.4, the worst team in the league scoring is Milwaukee at 91.5, the Bobcats sans-Jack is 5 points worse.

You have to score more than the other team to win, or at least that’s what John Madden told me.  The Bobcats are 1-5 with Jackson out.  That one win, against Minnesota who is tied for second worst in the league or something.  It also came before Gerald Wallace, the Bobcats second leading scorer this year, was traded.  Less of a margin for error there.  I don’t have stats for when Jack was having issues but played on anyway, but you can’t deny, 1-5 without, 27-35 with….Advanced stats be damned when it comes to your team’s leading scorer (especially if it’s by 5 or so points).

So, better with Jack for sure, but does it matter?  I put a big, fat, ugly question mark up there in the title.  Do the Bobcats even have hopes at this point?  2 games out of the 8th spot, which might as well be 4 because the Pacers and the Bucks hold the tiebreaker with the Bobcats.  There are 13 games left.  If the Bobcats lose to Indiana, they’ll fall a full 3 games behind them, and another behind Milwaukee.

When Stephen Jackson, through injury and pain is saying things like this:  “I can’t be as aggressive on defence because I know I can’t move and stay in front of guys like I want to because of it,” Jackson said. “My shot, I have to compensate my right leg with my left leg. It’s kind of throwing my game off. … I’m thinking too much and it’s definitely affecting my play.”  Do you really want him out there?

(The Previous quote was taken from the AP’s article by Mike Cranston, rerun in the Canadian Press.  Those damn Canadians and their wacky ways of spelling words like defence.  I bet they said “It’s aboot time Stephen Jackson sat dun.”  Enjoy your round bacon, weirdos.)

So, it’s a precarious situation.  But I believe that Paul Silas and the guys we have left have it in them to tank.  I wouldn’t even suggest it, I’m that opposed to it.  I’m just suggesting, that without Stephen Jackson, and maybe even with him, the only thing the Bobcats are playing for is to give Coach Silas a record of .500 or better.  He sits at 19-22 right now.  Looking at that, it isn’t the Stephen Jackson injury, it’s not the Nazr Mohammed or Gerald Wallace trade that has the Bobcats in this predicament.  Not pointing fingers but damn, I’d put a spotlight, headlights, whatever else that’s worse than pointing fingers, directly on Larry Brown and his horrible start to the season.

He’s screwed this organization in so many ways, longevity, cap space, handcuffing trades, poor drafts.  Why not pile on the fact that the Bobcats are on the outside looking in at the playoffs.  The Playoffs, they’re such a big deal.  Especially when you look at the way this team has been structured and the way the city views them.  Everybody loves a winner, everyone loves “buzz” and a hot ticket.  The only thing, outside of Gerald Henderson or DJ White or one of the other young guys turning into Blake Griffin or some other hype-boy, is to bring the playoffs to Time Warner Cable Arena.

The season will have been a loss.  The goals as stated at least twice publicly by Michael Jordan will not have been reached.  Does it rest on Stephen Jackson and his sore  incredibly painful hamstring?  In this moment, yes.  But in the history books, in my postseason write-up, it won’t come down to one game or one player’s inability to move on the court.  This will come down to one angry old man and the mistake of not firing him sooner.

For more on Jackson’s injury and what it means right now, check out Rick Bonnell in the Observer and Mike Cranston of the AP.  (I can tell you from breaking my femur, ice and stem are fantastic but nothing matches time, Bonnell is exactly right in his opening line.  The Bobcats’ season, is out of time)