What if Gordon Hayward ended up with the Charlotte Hornets in 2014?

Imagine, if you will, an alternate timeline where Utah doesn’t match the Charlotte Hornets’ max offer sheet to Gordon Hayward three years ago.

Via a Players’ Tribune post, Gordon Hayward revealed he was leaving the Utah Jazz in favor of the Boston Celtics. This timeline exists after the Jazz matched the offer sheet made by the Charlotte Hornets in 2014 to Hayward. There’s a different timeline though, one in which the Jazz don’t match. In that timeline, we can ask ourselves…what if?

Just an aside, this timeline is almost impossible. It’s just a fun imagined fantasy, as the Jazz had said that they would match any offer that Hayward would receive as an RFA. For NBA enthusiasts, this sounds a lot like the scenario between Otto Porter Jr. and the Washington Wizards right now. Maybe there was a

Maybe there was a fax machine error or Dennis Lindsey, Utah’s GM, ran out of pens for Hayward to sign with. Whatever the circumstance, in our imagined fantasy, Hayward begins as a member of the Hornets for the 2014-2015 NBA season.

2014-2015 Season

The two teams most obviously affected by Hayward signing with the Hornets are themselves and the Jazz. If the Jazz doesn’t match the offer sheet made by the Hornets, a couple of dominoes fall differently in free agency though. The Hornets would lack the cap space to sign both Marvin Williams and Lance Stephenson.

Since Stephenson was offered a contract of similar value with the Pacers, we will say he remains there. (However, is an even more interesting timeline where he signs with the Bulls, meaning Pau Gasol goes to one of the Thunder, Spurs, or Heat. That’s a lot of moving parts, so Stephenson stays with the Pacers.) Williams is a bit more complicated, as he drew interest from the Suns, Spurs, Heat, Clippers, and Jazz.

We can say with Hayward out of the picture however, the Jazz is a little more desperate in retaining Williams, and they pay him what he wants. Filling the void left by Hayward, the Jazz places their faith in Rodney Hood, a young SG/SF.

Now that the free agency period has been decided, it’s time to look at the regular season. The Hornets would likely start the season with a lineup like this:

PG – Kemba Walker
SG – Gary Neal
SF – Gordon Hayward
PF – Cody Zeller
C – Al Jefferson

The Jazz would presumably start their season with this lineup:
PG – Trey Burke
SG – Alec Burks
SF – Rodney Hood
PF – Derrick Favors
C – Enes Kanter

Using John Hollin ger’s EWA stat, we can calculate the advantages for the Hornets and Jazz. The Hornets gain 12.7 wins with the addition of Hayward and losing Stephenson and Williams actually give the Hornets another whole win. Rounding up, we can assume the Hornets actually win 14 more games than they did in the 2014-15 season. The Jazz will lose 10 more games starting Hood instead of Hayward.

The Hornets now finish with a record of 46-36, making the playoffs as the sixth seed, and the Jazz finish 28-54, landing in the lottery., but with much better odds this time. The Hornets would lose to the Bulls in the first round of the playoffs or be beaten in the second round by the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Jazz moves up from the 12th pick to the 6th pick.

2015 Off-Season

The Utah Jazz selected Trey Lyles with the 12th pick, but with the 6th pick, they select the player that went there originally: Willie Cauley-Stein. The Hornets, who originally selected Frank Kaminsky, are drafting at 17, where they select two-guard Rashad Vaughn. The rest of the draft is altered with minor changes, but most of the influential players stay in the same spots.

Additionally, in this off-season, the Hornets swapped Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh for Nic Batum, a move they still make. They also sign Jeremy Lin in free agency, and trade for Jeremy Lamb, giving them a formidable bench unit. The Jazz had a relatively quiet off-season in comparison, signing Raul Neto and re-signing Joe Ingles.

2015-2016 Season

The Hornets make a big jump here. They run a deep lineup:

PG – Kemba Walker / Jeremy Lin
SG – Nicolas Batum / Courtney Lee (acquired mid-season for Brian Roberts and P.J. Hairston)
SF – Gordon Hayward / Jeremy Lamb
PF – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist / Spencer Hawes
C – Cody Zeller / Al Jefferson

They won 48 games in the actual 2015-2016 season, but substituting Hayward for Williams, and effectively slotting Kidd-Gilchrist as a slashing PF would bump them over the 50 win mark. Winning just one more game would’ve given them the 3 seed and home court advantage in the 2016 playoffs, something I believe would’ve been enough to move them out of the second round.

If Hornets fans remember the heartbreak delivered by Dwyane Wade in game 6 – which would’ve moved the Hornets to the second round, then they should remember the Heat being beat in the second round by the Raptors. However, this Hornets & Hayward timeline is much different. Remember earlier, where the Hornets didn’t have enough cap to sign Lance Stephenson, so he re-signed with Indiana? That’s important here.

The Pacers pushed the Raptors to seven games in the first round. With playoff Lance Stephenson, that’s easily a one game swing, meaning the 2016 Eastern Conference Semifinals feature the Hornets and Pacers, instead of the Heat and Raptors.

I firmly believe the Hornets would beat that Pacers team. Hayward, Batum, and Kidd-Gilchrist would’ve been solid enough in the rotation to slow down Paul George, and Cody Zeller is much better than rookie Myles Turner was. This means the Hornets make an Eastern Conference Finals – where they would almost assuredly be swept by the Cavs, but an ECF appearance nonetheless.

The Jazz is much different, treading water without Hayward, stuck in an eternity of not bad enough for top lottery picks, but not good enough for playoff appearances in a stacked Western Conference. (For the record, the Jazz finished 9th in the West in the actual timeline here, one game out of a first round playoff match-up with the Warriors. Without Hayward, I presume they would’ve finished somewhere around 11th.)

2016 Off-Season & Regular Season

Past this point, it’s difficult to say with even a small degree of certainty what would happen here. The Hornets would still have a fantastic guard/forward rotation with Batum, Hayward, and Walker all under lock. Zeller would continue to lock down the center spot, and Kidd-Gilchrist would play minutes at the 4, but that would assuredly be the Hornets biggest need entering this offseason. Perhaps they look at drafting Skal Labissière with a late first round pick? They would also need to address bench depth after losing Lin, Lee, and Jefferson.

The Jazz would be in a different boat. Instead of dealing Taurean Prince in a three-team deal to acquire George Hill in a win-now move, the Jazz probably tries to draft one of Buddy Hield, Jamal Murray, or Kris Dunn, depending on their place in the lottery. I presume they’d even try to trade up if not in a position to draft them in order to develop more young backcourt talent, as their frontcourt would be set with Cauley-Stein, Gobert, Williams, Hood, Ingles and Favors running a vicious rotation.

Other affected teams would include the Pacers, entering the final year of Lance Stephenson’s contract and an ECSF appearance. They would be in a limbo as well, trying to decide what to do. The Raptors may consider giving up on their core after a first round elimination.

The Celtics would not be thinking of signing Hayward in free agency, as Hayward would feel more at home on a contender in the Hornets, who valued him enough to offer him a max contract up-front. Maybe it is more likely they acquire either Jimmy Butler or Paul George, who they were both heavily linked to.

It’s also likely the Hornets make the playoffs again this past season, meaning Malik Monk and Dwight Howard are out of the picture. This of course further shakes up the draft, and the infinite butterfly effect becomes too large to even begin to make sense of.

How It All Shakes Out

In the end, I think the Hornets end up as anywhere from the second to the fourth-best team in the East, with a Conference Finals appearance to show for themselves. The Jazz never makes the jump to becoming the 4th seed in the West, and instead are still searching for the right pieces to make it all better. The Raptors trade Kyle Lowry in an attempt to escape mediocrity, and the Pacers are still hoping that Paul George and Lance Stephenson can put together some of the magic they had in 2013.

Next: How MCW can work for Charlotte?

Hopefully, the Hornets can strike gold soon and make an ECF appearance for the sake of the fans, but RFAs like Hayward likely never leave. Even if it was unlikely to ever happen, it’s fun to imagine Hayward on the Hornets.

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