Statistical Analysis: Draft Rumors, Trading Up, and the Best Move for the Charlotte Hornets
What are the likely outcomes for each of the first three picks based on recent trends?
Let’s take a look at the top three picks since 2000:
| Average Age | Win Shares | Games Played/Seasons Worth of Games | All- Stars | MVP Top-10 Finishers | Busts* | MVP DPOY 6MOY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Picks | 19.561 | 988.2 | 9,830 (6.42) | 11 (58%) | 6 (32%) | 5 (28%) | 3 (16%) |
| 2nd Picks | 19.606 | 636 | 9,714 (6.34) | 6 (32%) | 2 (11%) | 7 (39%) | 2 (11%) |
| 3rd Picks | 19.799 | 916.4 | 11,111 (7.26) | 9 (47%) | 5 (26%) | 2 (11%) | 3 (16%) |
*What constitutes a bust is admittedly subjective. For the purposes of this comparison, a player must play at least 3 NBA seasons, start greater than half of his career games played beginning with the 3rd year, and have a career VORP (value over replacement player) of 1 or greater. This naturally disqualifies players from the 2018 draft.
There are a few conclusions we can draw from the data:
Age
- While the average ages aren’t significantly different from pick to pick, they do get older as they descend. In easier terms to understand: the average age of the first pick is 19 years and 205 days (6 months and 3 weeks); for the second pick, 19 years and 221 days (7 months and 1 week); and the third, 19 years and 292 days (9 months and 2 weeks). This seems to correspond with the common wisdom that, among top talent, scouts prefer younger players.
- This also closely corresponds with scientific studies that suggest children born in Autumn have a physical advantage in athletics—considering the draft normally takes place the second-to-last Thursday in June, the average first, second, and third picks would be 19 years old on the original draft date and born in the last week of November, the second week of November, and the first week of September respectively.
- Among projected lottery prospects this year, the players who fit those descriptions most closely are Onyeka Okongwu for first (12/11/00), Tyrell Terry for second (9/28/00), and Devin Vassell (8/26/00) for third.
Reliability and Player Ceiling
- Predictably, the number one pick outperformed the second and third in every positive statistic but one—games played. The average third pick plays 13% more career games than the first, and 17% more than the second. Factoring in the 2011 lockout season and last year’s shortened season, that translates to almost a full regular season’s worth of games played more than the first and second picks. The average third pick is significantly more durable (perhaps as a result of relying less on physical gifts?).
- First picks are more likely to develop into star players, but third picks have less volatile outcomes and a better all-star-to-bust ratio. They’re also the only pick more likely to produce a major award winner than a bust.
- Second picks are the only ones more likely to produce a bust than an all-star.