Statistical Analysis: Draft Rumors, Trading Up, and the Best Move for the Charlotte Hornets

With all of that bad history, should the Hornets consider trading up for number two? Or even number one for that matter?

So, if the phone rings for Charlotte Hornets GM Mitch Kupchak and company, should they consider it?

It’s complicated.

As our numbers tell us: if it’s Golden State on the other line, hang up and block the number. There’s no precedent for giving up anything substantial for the second pick and coming out with more value. Be it a statistical trend or superstition based on coincidence, the third pick tends to produce a better, more reliable player than the second by a considerable margin.

Aside from that, the current Golden State regime doesn’t have much history of making trades that it doesn’t win.

As for Minnesota’s first overall pick, the only precedent from three to one is decidedly negative. Philadelphia’s ill-fated trade with Boston from third to first—with which they selected maybe the league’s most bizarre bust in Markelle Fultz after giving up an additional first-round pick—netted the Celtics eventual all-star Jayson Tatum.

Of course, singular retrospective mistakes by other franchises shouldn’t dissuade a front office from making a trade it believes will net the most value. If the number one prospect is far enough ahead of the pack that it’s possible to extract that value, of course it should be considered.

However, in a draft class such as this one—where limited exposure due to disqualifications, a shortened pandemic season, the cancellation of the NCAA tournament, the lack of a traditional pre-draft process, and the uncommonly gaping holes and unanswered questions concerning the polish and potential of its top talent, and the limited time those picks will have to develop before next season—perhaps teams selecting in the top three should heed the numbers (and the history) a little more faithfully than any other year.

For a team like the Charlotte Hornets, who can ill-afford to lose any asset value in the search for high-end talent, the edict to select the proverbial best player available might prove doubly prescient.

Let’s hope the

third is the one with the treasure chest.