Charlotte Hornets Midseason Grades: Terry Rozier is scarier than ever

Is Terry a winning player?

Terry Rozier’s scoring has been better than anyone reasonably expected this year, but there are some caveats. While his scoring in the first three quarters of games isn’t as elite as it is in late-game situations, he still has a respectable 60% eFG rate in that portion of games. That’s 7th out of 54 players with 300+ shot attempts.

Here’s the $17 million question, has Rozier’s scoring been conducive to winning?

It’s promising that Rozier’s eFG% doesn’t drop significantly in losses, but it’s also telling that he takes three fewer shots in wins—along with the large disparity between his assisted FG%, which indicates putting the ball in his hands to get isolation buckets isn’t always going to do it. That’s okay though; there are very few players in the league who can make that claim, and most of them are being paid a lot more.

Naturally, stats are going to look worse in losses. But how about games where his stats do look good? Are those usually wins?

The Hornets are 6-11 in Rozier’s 17 highest-scoring games this season, with 35% of those opponents having a winning record. Conversely, Charlotte is 10-6 in his 16 lowest scoring games, and 50% of those teams had winning records.

Obviously, there are a lot more confounding variables in wins and losses than Rozier’s individual performance, but it’s important to keep in mind that the majority of his impressive games this year have resulted in losses against slightly inferior teams.

Terry on defense

Rozier is still not a positive force for the defense this season. Take a look at a few advanced stats:

• BBall Index’s LEBRON defensive rating: -1.18 (11th percentile, between bad defenders Lou Williams and Carsen Edwards)
• 538’s RAPTOR defensive rating: -1.0 (up from -1.5 last year, but still between Davis Bertans and Luka Doncic. That’s the bottom 34% among 250 qualifying players)
• ESPN’s DRPM: -0.53 (33rd percentile, just ahead of Kendrick Nunn)
• Defensive on/off points per 100 possessions: +4.8 (20th percentile—this stat means that the defense allows 4.8 more points per 100 defensive possessions when he’s on the court vs. off, and a positive number is a bad thing)

None of these advanced metrics are the final say on a player’s defensive impact. Together though, they paint a picture that’s hard to deny of Rozier’s deficiencies on that end. His issues are the same as they’ve always been—not necessarily a matter of quickness, but of fundamentals, awareness, and consistency.

Rozier and Devonte’ Graham (who’s similarly undersized) have been a major part of the Hornets’ struggles defending the perimeter this season.