The Charlotte Hornets are back in action tonight as the Dallas Mavericks come to town. The Hornets picked up a crucial victory in their last game and are looking to extend their winning streak to four games, which would mark their longest winning streak since early January.
The Mavericks have had a solid season, riding the stellar play of Luka Doncic to a 43-27 record and 5th place in the Western Conference. Tonight’s game marks the fifth and final game of a road trip that has seen them visit the Houston Rockets , Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, and Philadelphia 76ers. The Mavericks will be at a rest disadvantage in tonight’s game, as they suffered a loss in Philadelphia last night while the Hornets have had two consecutive days off.
Keys to the Game
Something must give
The Hornets are 35-35, with a 17-17 record at home and an 18-18 record on the road. They are 22-22 against Eastern Conference teams, 13-13 against Western Conference teams, and have a 112.6 offensive rating and a 112.4 defensive rating. They have an average point differential of 0.07, which is the closest to zero in the NBA. They have not had a winning streak or losing streak longer than three games in the past five weeks.
Since the All-Star break, the Mavericks have an offensive rating of 113.1 and a defensive rating of 113.3. While they have gone 8-3 in that stretch, they have a point differential of just +2. Their average point differential in that stretch is 0.18, the closest to zero in the NBA.
Limit Luka
Luka Doncic is having yet another superb season, posting averages of 28 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.6 assists. They key for Charlotte will be to force him into taking three-point attempts and creating turnovers when Doncic is handling the ball. Doncic is tied for fifth in the league in scoring, but among the top sixteen scorers he has the second-worst three-point percentage, ahead of only Giannis Antetokounmpo. Doncic’s season-high in three pointers made in a game is seven, a mark matched by three different Hornets (Kelly Oubre, Terry Rozier, and LaMelo Ball).
Doncic is tied with James Harden for the league lead in turnovers per game at 4.5. Doncic has the highest usage rate in the NBA at 37.1%, so creating turnovers when he has the ball will go a long way towards victory for Charlotte.
Dictate Pace
The Hornets and Mavericks are the inverse of each other when it comes to pace. The Hornets have the third-highest pace in the NBA (100.37), while the Mavericks have lowest pace (95.3). Charlotte is tied with the Milwaukee Bucks for the second-most points per game (114.9), while Dallas scores the fifth-lowest points per game (106.6), the lowest of any team currently in position to make the postseason. Charlotte attempts the third-most field goals per game (91.9), while Dallas attempts the fourth-fewest (85.5). Whichever team can dictate the pace of the game will be in great position to get the victory.
Odds and Moneyline provided by FanDuel
Point spread: Mavericks -1
Money line: Hornets -102 / Mavericks -116
Over-under: 223.5
The Hornets’ fast-paced offense and the Mavericks’ more deliberate attack combine for the over-under of 223.5. Since the All-Star break, Charlotte’s average scoring output is 121.3, while Dallas’ is 106.5. While the Mavericks may be fatigued coming off a tough game in Philadelphia, the Hornets are well-rested and should put up points. Dallas’ tendency to slow the game down could complicate things, but the over will hit if the post All-Star break averages hold.
Final Prediction
While the Hornets make every effort to contain Luka Doncic, the defensive effort focused on Doncic allows others to get in a rhythm. Charlotte makes it a competitive contest, but Dallas pulls away late to secure the victory.