Swarm and Sting
Fansided

The Gordon Hayward conundrum

By Evan Birchmore

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - DECEMBER 29: Gordon Hayward #20 of the Charlotte Hornets warms up before the game against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on December 29, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - DECEMBER 29: Gordon Hayward #20 of the Charlotte Hornets warms up before the game against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on December 29, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

Say the name “Gordon Hayward” and you are likely to receive a mixed response from Charlotte Hornets fans. Some view the 32-year-old forward as a valuable contributor, a steadying veteran presence, and one of Charlotte’s better two-way players. Others see the former all-star as increasingly injured, inconsistent, and expensive.

While both opinions have merit, the reality is that Hayward is still a valuable player in a vacuum. Although the NBA does not exist in a vacuum, Hayward’s contributions provide a conundrum for the Hornets. He is a good enough player to help Charlotte to the postseason, but he does not necessarily elevate their ceiling beyond that. However, he is too good of a player to be on the roster if Charlotte decides to take a gap year and enter the Victor Wembenyama sweepstakes ahead of the 2023 NBA draft.

Hayward has posted averages of 17.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists across 93 appearances in his Hornets tenure. While his scoring dipped from 19.6 points per game in 2021 to 15.9 points per game in 2022, he also had fewer field goal attempts per game, going from 15 attempts per game in 2021 to 12.6 attempts per game in 2022. Both his scoring and his attempts were good for second-most for the Hornets in 2021 and fourth-most in 2022. This reflects a bigger shift within the Hornets’ offensive hierarchy between Hayward’s first and second seasons in Charlotte. In 2021, Hayward operated as either the second or third option on offense most nights, while in 2022 he became the third or fourth option due to the emergence of Miles Bridges and the continued ascension of LaMelo Ball.

Hayward also brings value in his efficiency and his defense. He has shot 46.6% from the field, 40.2% from three-point range, and 84.4% from the free throw line in his two seasons with the Hornets. His 39.1% three-point shooting last season was the best mark of any player who spent the entire season on the active roster. On defense, Hayward posted a better-than-average 111.0 individual defensive rating, good for third best amongst Charlotte’s season-long rotational players. While his injuries have taken a half-step from him over the years, Hayward still provides above-average perimeter defense to a unit that certainly needs it.

The aforementioned issue is that the NBA does not exist in a vacuum, and external factors such as injuries and contracts do matter. Unfortunately, the injuries must be a part of any discussion surrounding Hayward, as he has appeared in just 93 out of a possible 156 games since arriving in Charlotte. A sprained foot prematurely ended his 2021 campaign, while a sprained ankle derailed his 2022 season. The Hornets are 26-37 in games Hayward has missed over the past two seasons, including two blowout losses in the play-in tournament. Contrarily, they are 50-43 in games Hayward has played.

This past season, Charlotte went 2-6 in the eight games immediately following Hayward’s injury on February 7th against the Toronto Raptors. However, they finished the regular season by going 13-6 over their final 19 games and had appeared to have learned how to win consistently without Hayward. However, with Miles Bridges’ current legal status, the team will need Hayward back in the fold to win at a high rate.

The other sticking point with Hayward is his contract. Signed to a four-year/$120 million deal in 2020, the Hornets waived and stretched Nicolas Batum to free up the cap space to sign Hayward. By having nearly $9 million per season in dead cap from that move, the true cost of Hayward sits at approximately $39 million per season. With Hayward having appeared in just under 60% of possible games since signing, $12 million of his $30 million average annual salary has not been directly correlated to Hayward being on the court. When considered in tandem with Batum’s dead money, the figure sits at approximately $21 million of the previously mentioned $39 million that has not correlated to on-court production.

The Gordon Hayward conundrum is a question of direction

Ultimately, the Gordon Hayward conundrum is a question of direction. If the Hornets want to compete for the playoffs, the best hope is a healthy season from Hayward. Despite the injury concerns and his age, he is still valuable when on the court. If Charlotte decides to angle for better lottery odds, move off long-term contracts, and develop their young players, then Hayward would become the odd man out. Not only would he raise the team’s floor too high for them to be in prime lottery position, but the two years remaining on his contract would be better converted into a one-year commitment if the Hornets decide to move in that direction.

Home/Hornets News