At What Price Should the Hornets Trade for Donovan Mitchell?
By Bruno Coelho
It seems like yesterday that Donovan Mitchell was a rookie leading the Utah Jazz to a series win over Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now, with Mitchell about to enter his sixth year in the league, his name has been in trade rumors for weeks. With rumblings of a deal to bring Mitchell to the Charlotte Hornets, it is appropriate to evaluate what he would bring to the team.
Offensively, Mitchell is an absurdly talented player, one of the few who can score from all three levels. He is lethal from three-point range, shows craftiness and balance in the midrange, and can finish around the rim.
He is quietly one of the deadliest shooters in the league, as he shoots 43.7% on wide open threes and 40.3% on his catch-and-shoot attempts. Additionally, in the last three years, only eight players have taken more pull-up threes than Mitchell, and among the top 50 volume pull-up shooters in the league, he ranks 16th in shooting percentage.
He is one of only 12 players to average at least 25 points and five assists per game over the past two years, but he does more than just score. He is the leader of the team. He is the guy the Jazz look to in the closing moments to make the right play, and he often delivers with dazzling late-game comebacks, scoring outbursts, and playmaking.
On top of that, Mitchell is one of the most prolific playoff scorers in today’s game. He has the sixth-most points per game average of any player in the postseason since his debut; he has produced 1,105 points through 39 games, good for 28.3 points per game come playoff time.
Mitchell is also a very underrated playmaker. The mere threat of his scoring opens a lot for teammates, and he has had plenty of game-changing moments as a playmaker.
As strange has it may seem, Mitchell was seen as defensive prospect coming out of Louisville in 2017. His athleticism, sturdy frame, and 6-foot-10 wingspan were supposed to make him an All-NBA caliber defender; his draft day comparison was 2022 defensive player of the year Marcus Smart.
Five years later, Mitchell was rated as a bottom-20 defender in the NBA by FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR, which analyzes shot and tracking data to estimate a player’s impact on that end of the floor. His defense worsened in the playoffs, as players shot 10% better than their normal mark when guarded by him. Still, Mitchell was a very good defender early on his career, and the potential is still there. Perhaps having defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert as a teammate instilled some bad habits in Mitchell. He is not very good as an off-ball defender as he overhelps on drives and watches the ball. When guarding the ball, Mitchell fails to stop guards from getting to the paint. One thing he does seem to do well is defend bigger guards or wings thanks to his length and athleticism.
Regarding a possible trade to the Hornets, these are Charlotte’s available trade assets as of now:
Draft Capital: three future first-round picks (two of their own + Denver 2023 lottery-protected); six future second-round picks (two of their own + Utah 2023 + Boston 2023 + Mavericks or Heat 2023; the better of the two + Knicks 2024)
Young Players: PJ Washington, James Bouknight, Kai Jones, JT Thor
Veterans: Terry Rozier; Gordon Hayward; Kelly Oubre Jr.
Possessing only three first-round picks gives Charlotte a massive disadvantage in the Mitchell sweepstakes. The team will have to compensate with young talent.
When the Hornets are linked to an All-Star’s name, excitement is palpable. It is not just that Donovan Mitchell is a multiple-time All-Star, but also that he just now entering the prime years of his career.
When superstars are traded, the team that obtains that player generally “wins” the transaction. The Los Angeles Lakers won a championship after acquiring Anthony Davis, as did the Toronto Raptors when they obtained Kawhi Leonard.
Would it be difficult to part with the likes of James Bouknight and Kai Jones? Yes.
Would it be worth it? Not necessarily.
The Mitchell rumors have shown a divide in the fanbase; those focused on the short-term success of the team and those focused on the long-term success.
When Utah traded Gobert to the Minnesota Timberwolves earlier this offseason, they received a king’s ransom in return.
The full price for Gobert was Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Leandro Bolmaro, 2022 No. 22 overall pick Walker Kessler, four future first-round picks in 2023, 2025 and 2027, a top-five protected pick in 2029, and a pick-swap in 2026.
That deal has set the market astronomically high for any other star that may be dealt this offseason. Therefore, it is important to consider what Charlotte already has within the organization.
PJ Washington is already a versatile stretch four and is a prime breakout candidate heading into this season. James Bouknight, Kai Jones, and JT Thor did not get much run last season, but all showed flashes of they could one day be. In games that Bouknight played at least 15 minutes, he averaged 13 points on 39.4/40.5/88.9 shooting splits while showing a unique blend of scoring and athleticism. Jones impressed in the G-League, posting averages of 18.3 points and 10.8 rebounds per night. Thor appeared in the most NBA games of the trio and provided a high level of defensive intensity that should play well under new head coach Steve Clifford.
Rozier, Hayward, and Oubre may not fit the long-term timeframe, but they do represent Charlotte’s third, fourth, and fifth highest-scoring players from last season, respectively. With the inherent uncertainty of the younger players, the veteran trio are a crucial part of any success Charlotte hopes to have this season.
This is where the long-term view of the organization needs to be considered.
The reward of Donovan Mitchell does not justify the price
Donovan Mitchell is a great player who would immediately help the Hornets. However, he is not worth mortgaging the entire future for, especially given the reported asking price for his services.