Mavericks? Bucks? Nets? Kelly Oubre Jr. is an All-Star on his best day, and an inefficient shot-chucker on his worst. His defense has dropped off significantly since his Phoenix days and his forthcoming payday make a worthwhile deal difficult to figure out.
It comes with an air of inevitability that the Charlotte Hornets are “talking to several teams” about trading forward Kelly Oubre.
Steve Clifford brings a defense-first reputation and an old-school emphasis on accountability to a team that defined itself by youth and freewheeling offense. There’s a potential for friction there, especially for someone like Kelly Oubre Jr. — a microwave scorer off the bench who plays defense like 10-year-old me would slop a sponge across my dad’s car, getting enough soap on there so my old man doesn’t yell at me, but nothing more.
So much of Oubre’s appeal is baked into his shot-making ability — he’ll look like an All-Star whenever his shot is falling but struggle to make an impact when it isn’t.
Looking back, Oubre’s first year with the Hornets is the perfect embodiment of his consistent inconsistencies:
Kelly Oubre’s first 39 games (half his games played +1):
16.6 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 2 SPG, on 46/38/68
Kelly Oubre’s last 37 games of the year:
13.3 PPG, 4 RPG, 1 APG, on 41.5/30/67
Was one of the two sides a fluke?
Going by his career numbers, Oubre is probably closer to the second half of the year but overall, somewhere in the middle.
It’s easy to criticize streaky shooters whose confidence never seems to waver, but you would be wrong to assume they offer no value. Look at Jordan Clarkson for example. Just two-season ago, the filipino guard was an 18-point per game scorer who needed 16 shots a night to do so. His defense was poor and his passing was below-average for the position. Nevertheless, he was still a crucial piece in Utah’s league-leading offense and winner of the Sixth Man of The Year award.
Back to Oubre, he took 12.3 shots per game. Among the 85 qualified NBA players taking at least that many shots, Oubre ranked 64th in true shooting percentage, 53rd in three-point percentage, 74th in rebounds per game and dead least in assists — he really only does one thing, and he doesn’t do it well.
How do the Hornets justify hanging onto Oubre? They can’t.
The Hornets are poised to sit as one of the largest sellers in the NBA market — a push for the playoffs would be very shortsighted for the team.
The bulk of Charlotte’s tradable assets are: Terry Rozier (28), PJ Washington (24), Gordon Hayward (32), and Kelly Oubre Jr. (26). At first blush, the notion that Oubre — neither the best all-around player on that list (that would be one of Hayward or Rozier), nor its most promising one (PJ Washington) — is the most valuable asset seems kind of difficult to square.
However, Oubre’s age and contract situation significantly boost his stock for contending teams who seem to be missing that one extra talent that can push them over the edge and make them true contenders.
Oubre won’t be the best player on a contender, or the second best, or the third best, or maybe even the fourth best. But he’s a solid player with a versatile offensive arsenal that can help any team.
A title contender that actually needs what he provides is ideal for Oubre, as is playing alongside a young point guard (Doncic) that can get him open looks on the perimeter (more than half of Reggie Bullock’s and Dorian Finney-Smith’s three-point attempts were wide open; 51.5 and 50.6 percent respectively). The gravity of a shooting big (Wood is a career 38% shooter from behind the arc) would also open a lot of driving lanes for Oubre and allow him to perfectly play to his strengths.
It’s possible to have success with players whose primary form of impact (for better or for worse) falls on putting the ball in the basket and in the end, whether it is Dallas or not, some contender in the league will find value in trading for Oubre.