Hornets take on Blazers in key battle for draft position
By Ben Handler
With the recent winning and general good vibes around the Hornets, it has been easy to lose track of what may actually be the bigger picture: draft positioning. At the end of the day, while it would be nice to stack some wins down the stretch of the season and build some momentum going forward, the best thing the Hornets can do is attain a top pick and draft a future star.
The flattening of draft lottery odds has somewhat neutralized tanking in the NBA, but there are still marginal advantages to having a worse record. Those advantages come through both in terms of actual lottery odds of getting a higher pick, and also in terms of how low a team’s pick can fall.
For example, the Hornets currently have the fourth-worst record in the league. Sunday night they’ll be in Portland to take on the Trail Blazers who have the fifth-worst record in the NBA.
There isn’t a massive difference between the two positions, but there is a difference. The team with the fourth worst record will have a 12.5% chance at first overall pick, a 12.2% chance at second, an 11.9% chance at 3rd, and an 11.5% chance at fourth. The lowest that team’s pick could fall is eighth overall.
For comparison, the team with the fifth worst record will have a 10.5% chance at first overall pick, a 10.5% chance at second, a 10.6% chance at third, and a 10.5% chance at fourth. The lowest that team’s pick could fall is ninth overall.
So it may not seem like much, but even a difference of one spot in the draft could end up being the difference between the next young superstar and a bust. In a weird way, that difference will be on the line Sunday night.
The Hornets come into the tilt at 14-42, while the Blazers sit at 15-40. If the Hornets win these teams would be virtually tied in the standings, while if the Blazers win, they’d have a three-game lead in the loss column.
That’s a pretty decisive difference for two teams who aren’t exactly racking up the wins and don’t have that many more games to go. These teams will meet one more time on April 1st in Charlotte, so the season series won’t be decided on Sunday, but this one could still go a long way in establishing standings and draft order.
If ever there was a game to root for a moral victory and for the team to play well but fall short on the scoreboard, this may be the one.