Statistical Analysis: Draft Rumors, Trading Up, and the Best Move for the Charlotte Hornets
With the top two teams picking in this year’s draft looking to win now, what’s the difference between one, two, and three for the Charlotte Hornets?
The Charlotte Hornets are in a familiar situation, picking at number three in the 2020 NBA Draft. This time, they’ll look for a superstar.
Conventional playground wisdom tells us that first is the worst, second is the best, and that third is either the one with the hairy chest or treasure chest (depending on who you ask, and presumably if the person who finished in third is the one saying it).
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However, those familiar with the history of the NBA Draft will probably take issue with claiming second is the best.
Since at least 2000, one might even call the second overall pick cursed as the starting point of many high-profile busts and injury-plagued careers. Logically, a team like the Charlotte Hornets would be thrilled to have the second pick over the third. One could still be if they’re not the superstitious type.
After all, there are only so many franchise-altering talents in each draft, and a higher pick increases a team’s odds of missing out on one, right?
Pointing to a bust or a freak injury that derails a player’s career at a certain pick in the long history of the NBA Draft could always be the result of cherry-picking or confirmation bias. To offer something a little more scientific, I’ve compiled a few stats comparing some key statistics among the top three picks since 2000 (excluding the 2019 class since their sample size is still pretty small).